Dubai’s residential real estate market continued to grow in Q3 2025, supported by strong macroeconomic fundamentals, population growth and sustained investor confidence. The residential sales market recorded approximately 55,300 transactions, up 17.1 percent year-on-year, driven predominantly by exceptional off-plan activity.
According to the latest market report by Cavendish Maxwell, off-plan sales surged to a record 42,000 transactions, up 23.6 percent year-on-year and accounting for 76 percent of total market activity, despite a moderation in new project launches during the quarter. However, off-plan resales declined to 6.1 percent of off-plan activity, down from 9.7 percent a year earlier.
In contrast, Dubai’s ready property segment showed more subdued activity, with transaction volumes declining 5.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and rising only 0.6 percent year-on-year, potentially reflecting price sensitivity among buyers or a short-term market correction.
Sales transactions hit AED138 billion in Q3
In the third quarter of 2025, the total value of sales transactions reached AED138 billion, marking a 6.3 percent decline from Q2 2025, primarily due to a decrease in off-plan transaction values. Although off-plan sales volumes continued to rise, the total value fell by 7.9 percent, driven by a higher concentration of apartment sales, which typically have lower ticket prices than villas and townhouses.
Despite the quarterly dip, the market showed strong year-on-year growth, with off-plan and ready transaction values increasing by 18.8 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively.
Off-plan transactions reached 76 percent of sales market activity in Q3 2025, increasing from 72 percent year-over-year. This shift indicates that the market has become increasingly focused on future developments, driven largely by payment flexibility and developer incentives. However, as the gap with ready properties widens, questions around supply and demand balance have emerged. With off-plan dominance continuing to grow, attention is now turning to completion timelines, absorption rates and how the supply and demand dynamics may evolve going forward.
48,200 units set for delivery in Q4 2025
On the supply side, deliveries totalled approximately 9,400 units in Q3 2025, below the initial projection of 22,800 units, reflecting a materialization rate of 41.3 percent. Total deliveries in the first nine months reached 28,100 units, up 6 percent year-on-year.
Notably, construction cycles have shortened significantly to approximately 880 days in 2025, compared to 1,340 days in 2023, indicating accelerated project completion timelines. Looking ahead, around 48,200 units are projected for Q4 2025, with approximately 366,000 units expected through 2028, the majority phased for delivery in 2026 and 2027.
“While approximately 366,000 units are expected to enter the market through 2028, a figure that might at first glance raise concerns about oversupply, the reality is more measured. Rather than signalling an imbalance, this pipeline points to a period of healthy normalization in Dubai’s housing market. Although the upcoming supply wave may temper the recent pace of price growth, it ultimately reflects a maturing market, one characterised by steadier expansion, longer cycles and a growing emphasis on sustainable delivery rather than short-term spikes,” said Ronan Arthur, director, head of residential valuation.
Residential sales prices rise 16.1 percent year-on-year
Residential sales prices across Dubai’s residential real estate market continued their upward trajectory, rising 4.5 percent quarter-on-quarter and 16.1 percent year-on-year, driven by strong buyer demand from end-users and investors.
However, price growth varied across locations, with some areas recording double-digit increases while others experienced more moderate single-digit growth. The rental market also grew 4.4 percent quarter-on-quarter and 10.9 percent year-on-year, though the pace of annual growth moderated compared to 2024, when increases consistently ranged between 13-15 percent. Recent months saw growth ease to 11-12 percent, driven by the Smart Rental Index’s regulatory influence and increasing supply deliveries.
Dubai’s luxury real estate market grows 2.4 percent
Dubai’s luxury real estate market recorded approximately 430 transactions in Q3 2025. Transaction volumes declined by 50.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, primarily due to a slowdown in off-plan luxury activity; however remained 2.4 percent higher than the same period last year.
Although the luxury segment accounted for only 0.8 percent of total market transactions, it contributed 11.6 percent to the overall transaction value, highlighting its outsized contribution to the market. With continued inflows of global wealth and Dubai’s reputation as a stable and attractive international hub offering world-class lifestyle amenities, demand for luxury properties is expected to remain resilient.
Dubai’s ultra-luxury segment recorded 65 sales transactions valued at AED5.9 billion in Q3 2025. Both transaction volumes and values rose year-on-year, by 25 percent and 45 percent, respectively.
Read: Abu Dhabi real estate transactions surge 43.3 percent to $25.6 billion during 9M 2025
Dubai’s real estate market is entering a more mature phase
Overall, Dubai’s residential real estate market is entering a more mature phase. Off-plan sales are expected to remain strong in the near term if new launches continue, while the ready segment and rental market may show more measured activity.
The market faces a critical test in 2026 and 2027 when approximately 225,000 units are scheduled for delivery, which will test absorption capacity. Nevertheless, market fundamentals remain robust, positioning the Emirate to navigate this transition while maintaining steady momentum.
“The debate over which force would shape the Dubai market, whether potential oversupply or rising global uncertainty prompting a flight to quality, appears, for now, to have been settled in favor of the latter. However, as our analysis highlights, the coming years will test the sustainability of price growth as a substantial pipeline of new supply is delivered. With U.S. interest rates expected to edge lower, capital is likely to rotate towards emerging markets. The key question, therefore, is whether Dubai can continue to attract a meaningful share of this FDI. If it can, even the projected increase in supply may not be enough to slow price growth in US dollar terms,” said Julian Roche, chief economist, Cavendish Maxwell.
SOURCE: ECONOMYMIDDLEEAST